Wednesday, March 17, 2004

The Great Divide

The TV3 news Bobbsey Twins are certain, since they rounded up last night's news with this assertion - the Socialists won the Spanish election because Aznar lied about ETA being responsible for the train bombings.

This fits nicely with John Campbell's Chomskyist belief structure but is it actually true?

There are 4 possibilities:

1. Aznar lied and the Spanish voters reacted as above.

2. Aznar didn't lie but the Spanish voters reacted as above anyway.

3. Aznar lied but this was not the cause of the voting pattern.

4. Aznar didn't lie and this was not the cause of the voting pattern.

The Left have to believe that it was possibility no. 1 (and no. 2 being the next best thing). But there is no conclusive evidence for this.

The most one can say is that Aznar was perhaps too eager to blame ETA, but then he had good cause, and that some voters distrusted him anyway. But overall I tend to the simplest explanation that most voters just held Aznar responsible for the bombings.

But how one sees this will be determined by one's overall opinion of Bush and Blair and its unlikely there will be any common ground.

Update: France Gets Islamist Threat which confirms the view that this form of terrorism is not based on any connection to supporting or not supporting the US.

Another Update: Spain has a history with Al-Qaida cells going back well before the Iraq war and 911. Interesting to note that it was just the war that al Qaida is using as a selling point. I wonder for whose benfit that is?


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